Scarce Assets E003: Macro Masterclass with Lyn Alden
Feb 6, 2024
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Lyn Alden, a Macro Masterclass instructor, discusses broken money, monetary velocity, government debt, interest rates, portfolio construction, scarcity, diversification, and the future of Bitcoin with hosts Andy Edstrom and Jesse Myers on the Scarce Assets podcast.
The podcast emphasizes the importance of diversifying portfolios to include scarce assets like gold, energy stocks, and Bitcoin to navigate potential inflationary or stagflationary environments.
The podcast discusses the potential scarcity of longer maturities in US government bonds in an election year, highlighting the need to diversify portfolios beyond the traditional 60/40 allocation and consider assets like energy stocks and Bitcoin for hedging against inflation.
The podcast highlights investment opportunities within the Bitcoin ecosystem, particularly focusing on level twos built on Bitcoin and categories of business models that are still under-owned.
Deep dives
Scarcity and the Evolution of Money
The podcast episode explores the concept of scarcity and its impact on economics and markets, focusing on the scarce asset of Bitcoin. The speaker introduces Lynn Alden, a professional innovator, entrepreneur, investor, and macro analyst. Lynn discusses her book, 'Broken Money,' which delves into the history of money creation and its implications for inflation and the monetary system. She provides examples, such as the use of tobacco as currency in early colonies, highlighting the challenges and consequences of such systems. Additionally, Lynn talks about the role of technological advancements, such as analog encryption and the telegraph, in shaping the movement and control of money. Lastly, she discusses the importance of diversifying portfolios to include scarce assets like gold, energy stocks, and Bitcoin to navigate potential inflationary or stagflationary environments.
The Role of Scarcity in Asset Allocation
The podcast explores the role of scarcity in asset allocation, with a focus on US government bonds and the potential scarcity of longer maturities in an election year. The guest explains how excess demand for Treasury bills has led to the creation of reverse repo facilities. The Treasury has the option to tilt the duration of bond issuance towards shorter maturities to meet the excessive demand for Bills and potentially address insufficient demand for longer-dated securities. The guest also emphasizes the importance of diversifying portfolios beyond the traditional 60/40 allocation, especially in anticipating potential stagflationary environments. Assets such as energy stocks and scarce assets like Bitcoin are highlighted for their potential to hedge against inflation and provide diversification.
Investment Opportunities in the Bitcoin Ecosystem
The podcast episode discusses investment opportunities within the Bitcoin ecosystem. The guest, who is a general partner at ego death capital, explains their agnostic approach to investing in various sectors within Bitcoin. The focus is on areas such as level twos built on Bitcoin and categories of business models that are still under-owned. The guest expresses excitement and interest in allocating funds to these areas, recognizing the potential for growth and innovation in the Bitcoin startup scene. They also mention the recent launch of Bitcoin ETFs, which helps increase ownership in the Bitcoin ecosystem.
The Importance of Liquidity and Managing Short-term Rates
The podcast episode highlights the significance of liquidity and how managing short-term rates can impact the economy. The speaker suggests that tilting towards the short end of the yield curve can be positive for liquidity until the reverse repo facility is used up. They caution against extrapolating quarterly trends and emphasize the nonlinearity of fiscal year quarters. Although the next couple of quarters may be less extreme, structural liquidity problems persist. The treasury's focus on managing liquidity, especially until the reverse repo facility is drained, is expected to continue.
Considerations for Portfolio Construction and the Role of Scarce Assets
The podcast delves into the speaker's framework for portfolio construction, particularly emphasizing the importance of utility over speculation. They discuss the historical preference for stocks and bonds due to declining interest rates and inflation but highlight the need to consider global data and not just the US. Scarce assets, such as Bitcoin, are considered a powerful macro asset class. The speaker explores the potential of various Bitcoin-related technologies, including e-cash and lightning infrastructure. They also emphasize the importance of timing and the need for founders and investors to navigate the challenges of when to accelerate and when to be conservative. Overall, the speaker expresses optimism for Bitcoin's performance within the next two years, citing factors like increasing liquidity, the upcoming halving, and the absence of significant distribution cycles.
Scarce Assets: a biweekly podcast presented by Onramp which delves into the emergent role of Bitcoin in finance professionals' strategies and outlooks. Hosted by CFP, Andy Edstrom, and former hedge fund manager, Jesse Myers, Scarce Assets provides invaluable insights for wealth managers aiming to outperform their peers in the decades ahead.
Finance professionals everywhere know about stocks and bonds, but the macroeconomic outlook requires that serious investors pay close attention to another category: Scarce Assets.
0:00 - Introduction to Lyn
4:27 - Broken Money
9:47 - Monetary velocity & technology's role
23:00 - Government debt & maturity mix
32:12 - Interest rates & the Fed
37:01 - A message from Onramp
37:17 - Portfolio construction & scarcity
43:48 - Segmenting scarce assets
47:47 - Diversification & ownership dynamics
52:10 - Utility versus speculation
54:36 - Scaling & privacy solutions
56:26 - Timing considerations for bitcoin companies
59:46 - Looking ahead, long-term expectations
1:04:07 - Expecting the unexpected & wrapping up
Schedule time with the link below if you would ever like to learn more about Onramp and please sign up for Research & Insights to get access to the best content in the ecosystem weekly:
https://onrampbitcoin.com/contact-us/https://onrampbitcoin.com/category/onramp-media/
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