Curve Your Enthusiasm
What to expect, when you’re expecting a cut
Jul 19, 2024
CIBC’s Senior Economist, Ali Jaffery, joins Ian to discuss the upcoming Bank of Canada interest rate decision. They explore forecast changes, the possibility of shifting to forward guidance, impact of a 2025 trade war on global growth, and reasons for recent CORRA dislocations. They also analyze market expectations, divergence between KORA and target rates, US economic outlook, inflation dynamics, and fiscal policy implications.
29:18
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Quick takeaways
- Bank of Canada expected rate cut due to economic uncertainties, potential shift to forward-guidance.
- Potential US election policy changes may introduce uncertainty, impact global growth, and influence inflation levels.
Deep dives
Bank of Canada Rate Decision and Forecasts
July's Bank of Canada rate decision is expected to result in a cut due to prior economic uncertainties, though recent data suggests a return to stability, solidifying the prospect for a cut. Forecasts for GDP and inflation are not anticipated to change significantly, aligning with the bank's outcome-based view for future rate decisions.
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