Establish The Run Fantasy Football
Awards Market Betting Breakdown: The Biggest Inefficiency in NFL Betting Right Now (Episode 789 with Adam Levitan, Ryan Reynolds, Mark Dankenbring)
Oct 10, 2024
In this engaging discussion, Ryan Reynolds, an awards specialist, teams up with Adam Levitan and Mark Dankenbring to uncover the hidden gems in NFL awards betting. They explore the dynamics of the Comeback Player of the Year, spotlighting contenders like Sam Darnold and Aaron Rodgers. The conversation shifts to MVP longshots and Rookie of the Year candidates, with Jaden Daniels emerging as a rising star. The trio also assesses the Defensive Player of the Year race and Coach of the Year insights, revealing key betting strategies to exploit these inefficiencies.
33:14
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Quick takeaways
- The Comeback Player of the Year award's criteria emphasize resilience over past performance, creating exploitable inefficiencies in the betting market.
- Volatility in the Coach of the Year market highlights the importance of timely betting based on coaches' late-season performance and team success.
Deep dives
Understanding the Comeback Player of the Year Criteria
The Comeback Player of the Year award has specific criteria focusing on players overcoming significant challenges such as illness or injury. Recent discussions raise concerns about frontrunner Sam Darnold's eligibility, as he did not miss any time due to injury in the previous season but is instead celebrated for simply playing poorly. Analysts believe this creates a market inefficiency, as voters may not be fully aware of the new guidelines implemented by the Associated Press, which emphasize resilience over performance recovery. This insight allows bettors to potentially exploit the mispricing by considering other candidates who better fit the award's spirit.
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