The Acquirers Podcast Running Oak's Seth Cogswell on his Efficient Growth Strategy | S07 E40
Nov 13, 2025
Seth Cogswell, founder of Running Oak, shares his 'consistently not stupid' investment philosophy, focusing on earnings growth and downside risk. He discusses how predictable businesses can be undervalued in the market, creating unique opportunities. The conversation dives into the risks of passive investing, highlighting how it can misallocate capital and create market fragility. Seth also unpacks the misunderstood impacts of AI in investing, including its effects on workforce dynamics and the sustainability of tech infrastructure.
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Consistently Not Stupid
- Seth Cogswell summarizes Running Oak's strategy as "consistently not stupid," built on three simple, repeatable principles.
- The rules-based process focuses on earnings growth, disciplined valuation, and downside risk control to produce reliable client outcomes.
Earnings Growth As The Core Metric
- Running Oak emphasizes measurable earnings growth as the core growth metric and prefers earnings over cash flow for shareholder returns.
- Historically their portfolios averaged ~12–13% earnings growth versus ~6–7% for the S&P, creating a long-term edge.
Three Decades Of Backtested Performance
- Seth recounts Running Oak's long-term track record from 1989 to 2012/13 and his personal management between 2007–2013.
- The strategy outperformed the S&P by ~3.5% annually before fees, with historical earnings growth around 12–13%.