Voting Is About To Begin. How Has The Electorate Changed?
Sep 3, 2024
auto_awesome
Joining the discussion are Sarah McCammon, a national political correspondent, Ashley Lopez, a voting rights specialist, and Domenico Montanaro, a senior political editor. They delve into the shifting demographics impacting the upcoming elections, highlighting fewer white voters without college degrees and a surge in Latino and Asian American potential voters. The trio discusses how these changes influence campaign strategies in pivotal states like Georgia and North Carolina, as well as the evolving loyalties of voters across the spectrum.
The declining number of white voters without college degrees in key swing states presents significant challenges for Republican campaign strategies.
The increasing diversity, particularly in Latino and Asian American voter populations, highlights the need for tailored outreach by both political parties.
Deep dives
Changing Demographics of White Voters
White voters without college degrees represent a significant segment of the electorate, but their numbers are declining across key swing states. In the blue wall states like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan, the proportion of these voters has dropped from 66% in 2008 to about 58-59% today. This shift complicates the Republican strategy for mobilizing support, especially for Trump, who has previously relied on these voters. Meanwhile, there's a notable increase in white voters with college degrees in the same regions, who are trending more Democratic, posing further challenges for the Republican campaign.
The Significance of Latino Voters
Latino voters are an essential and growing demographic, particularly influential in states like Arizona and Nevada. Their eligible voting population in Arizona has increased from 19% to 29% since 2008, reflecting a shift that has favored Democratic candidates in recent elections. However, this group is not monolithic; differences in ethnicity and regional appeal complicate voter behavior, as demonstrated by the varying success of Trump’s messages in different subpopulations, such as Cuban Americans in Florida versus Mexican Americans in the Southwest. Understanding these nuances is crucial for both parties as they tailor their outreach and campaigning strategies.
Impact of Education on Voting Trends
Education level plays a significant role in voting behavior, with college-educated white voters comprising a growing portion of the electorate. In blue wall states, this demographic has increased substantially; for instance, in Pennsylvania, voters with degrees are up eight points since 2008. The upcoming election's turnout dynamics remain uncertain, but higher education correlates with higher voter participation, which could benefit Democrats. As the demographics shift, both parties face a challenge in appealing to their bases while also attracting new voters, indicating a need for effective campaign messaging.
There are fewer white people without college degrees, more Latino potential voters in key states and a rise in Asian American voters in Nevada. We have a detailed conversation about what that could mean as presidential election voting gets underway this week.
This episode: national political correspondent Sarah McCammon, voting correspondent Ashley Lopez, and senior political editor and correspondent Domenico Montanaro.
The podcast is produced by Casey Morell and Kelli Wessinger. Our editor is Eric McDaniel. Our executive producer is Muthoni Muturi.
Listen to every episode of the NPR Politics Podcast sponsor-free, unlock access to bonus episodes with more from the NPR Politics team, and support public media when you sign up for The NPR Politics Podcast+ at plus.npr.org/politics.