Bloomberg Surveillance

Bloomberg Surveillance TV: April 23, 2025

Apr 23, 2025
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INSIGHT

S&P 500 Outlook and Recession Risk

  • Julian Emanuel expects the S&P 500 lows from the recent sell-off to hold and a recession to be narrowly avoided.
  • He sees corporate earnings moderating but believes markets can handle a 'transition period' with 5% earnings growth.
INSIGHT

Tariffs Shock and Self-Limiting Policies

  • The current U.S. tariff levels exceed those of Smoot-Hawley, signaling a major shock to the system.
  • However, this shock is partly self-limiting as extreme policies face internal negotiations and political constraints.
INSIGHT

Expect Tariff News and Fed Patience

  • Emanuel foresees progress on U.S. policy initiatives before the Fed meeting on May 7, likely involving tariff announcements.
  • He believes the Fed will hold rates steady, awaiting more data, which supports a constructive market outlook.
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