US inflation risks outweigh labour market concerns

Kia ora,

Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

And today we lead with news the US Fed thinks inflation risks outweigh concerns about their labour market.

But first. in its familiar yoyo pattern, US mortgage applications fell last week by -1.4% from the prior week, but that makes then +10% higher than the same week a year ago. The softness over the past week is all related to softer refinance activity, even though benchmark 30 year mortgage rates changed little.

The US Fed released the minutes of its July meeting and that revealed the stances of the two Trump supporters on th nine-member voting panel. "Almost all" officials supported keeping rates unchanged at 4.25%, with those two dissenting in favour of a quarter-point cut to protect a weakening job market. It seems ironic that they should use that reason, because Trump fired the BLS chief for producing results that showed the American labour market weakening. One of the two, Christopher Waller, is considered the front-runner to replace Powell when his term ends. The two dissenters seem isolated in the group at this time.

But that has not stopped Trump supporters making up 'fraud' claims against sitting Fed members in an effort to twist the voting panel.

These minutes had no impact on financial markets.

There was a well-supported US Treasury 20 year bond tender earlier today that delivered a median yield of 4.82%. That was lower than the 4.89% at the prior equivalent event a month ago.

In Canada, a survey of small business owners turned more positive in July - even though their trade association claimed that 38% of them won't last a year without tariff changes.

Across the Pacific, Taiwan turned in another very strong rise in export orders, up +15% in July from a year ago. After the +25% rise in June, this remains impressive but is what analysts have now come to expect.

In Indonesia, they had a central bank review of their 5.25% policy interest rate yesterday and no change was anticipated. But in fact they cut by -25 bps to 5.00%, the fifth cut over the past year. They are confident inflation will remain contained and are moving to support "the need to stimulate economic growth in line with the economy's capacity".

In the UK, their CPI inflation rate rose to 3.8% in July, its highest since January 2024. Driving the rise were cost increases from transport, holidays, food and fuel. These were offset by slower increases in rents (even if they are still rising fast). They have their own twist on the CPI called the CPIH which they emphasise, which adds in owner-occupier housing costs, and that rose 4.2%. That draws in imputed rents, stamp duties, and the cost of maintenance improvements. Either way, they have a sharpish inflation problem.

In Australia, AUSTRAC said real estate agents are one of the key to tackling scams, drug trafficking and organised crime. Along with banks and lawyers, real estate agents are going to get more focus on fighting money laundering.

The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.29%, down -1 bp from yesterday at this time.

The price of gold will start today at US$3,347/oz, up +US$31 from yesterday.

American oil prices have stabilised at just over US$62.50/bbl with the international Brent price up +US$1 to just over US$66.50/bbl.

The Kiwi dollar is at just on 58.3 USc and down -70 bps from yesterday following the dovish RBNZ MPS. Against the Aussie we have fallen -80 bps to 90.6 AUc. Against the euro we are down -60 bps at 50 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 66.1, and down -80 bps.

The bitcoin price starts today at US$114,270 and up +0.7% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been low at just under +/-0.8%.

You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.

Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.