The Bunker – News without the nonsense Farage’s poll numbers: Too good to ignore?
Sep 25, 2025
In this discussion, Ben Walker, a senior data journalist at the New Statesman and co-founder of Britain Elects, dives deep into the striking rise of Nigel Farage and Reform UK's polling numbers. He explains how these numbers reflect real support and attract new voters, and discusses the impact of disgruntled non-voters. Walker also addresses how the economy, particularly the cost of living, shapes political sentiments, and examines whether scrutiny can diminish Reform's appeal amid shifting dynamics in British politics.
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Episode notes
Reform's Poll Lead Is Real
- Current polls showing Reform at ~30% reflect a real shift, not sampling error.
- Reform's rise is driven by new voters and previously non-voting people turning out for them.
Blackpool South As A Turning Point
- Ben recalls the Blackpool South by-election as a turning point for Reform.
- The party matched polls there, disproving early doubts about online-only support.
Reform Mobilises New Voters
- Reform's wins often increase turnout, unlike usual local contests.
- That suggests Reform mobilises new or previously disengaged voters rather than just stealing existing ones.
