Oil Markets US midterms: How much could change for oil markets?
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Oct 23, 2026 Eamonn Brennan, S&P Global Energy policy editor covering US energy regulation, and Kate Winston, a specialist in sanctions and international affairs, examine how the midterms could reshape oil politics. They discuss sanctions waivers, Russian diesel, tanker risks, Iran funding, Venezuelan investment, congressional investigations, permitting, production decisions, and the headwinds facing US EV adoption.
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Bipartisan Sanctions Could Pressure Trump
- Congress could challenge Trump’s Russian-oil sanctions waiver because the underlying legislation enjoys bipartisan support.
- Democrats could set the agenda, but Republicans who criticized Trump would determine whether a veto-proof coalition is possible.
Russian Diesel Promises Face Capacity Limits
- Russia’s proposed diesel exports would barely affect U.S. or global prices while Ukrainian attacks keep refining capacity constrained.
- Trump cited diesel prices, but Russia’s reported exports of roughly 100,000 to 150,000 barrels per day remain a drop in the bucket.
Shadow Fleet Sanctions Could Move Freight Rates
- Eamonn Brennan described how shadow-fleet tanker sanctions could reshape shipping costs even if commodity volumes barely change.
- Older vessels dominate the fleet, while overlapping U.S., EU, and UK sanctions could limit the policy’s practical effect.