Let’s see where the attendees of Manifest 2025 get off the Doom Train, and whether I can convince them to stay on and ride with me to the end of the line!

00:00 Introduction to Doom Debates

03:21 What’s Your P(Doom)?™

05:03 🚂 “AGI Isn't Coming Soon”

08:37 🚂 “AI Can't Surpass Human Intelligence”

12:20 🚂 “AI Won't Be a Physical Threat”

13:39 🚂 “Intelligence Yields Moral Goodness”

17:21 🚂 “Safe AI Development Process”

17:38 🚂 “AI Capabilities Will Rise at a Manageable Pace”

20:12 🚂 “AI Won't Try to Conquer the Universe”

25:00 🚂 “Superalignment Is A Tractable Problem”

28:58 🚂 “Once We Solve Superalignment, We’ll Enjoy Peace”

31:51 🚂 “Unaligned ASI Will Spare Us”

36:40 🚂 “AI Doomerism Is Bad Epistemology”

40:11 Bonus 🚂: “Fine, P(Doom) is high… but that’s ok!”

42:45 Recapping the Debate

See also my previous episode explaining the Doom Train: https://lironshapira.substack.com/p/poking-holes-in-the-ai-doom-argument

Watch the Lethal Intelligence Guide, the ultimate introduction to AI x-risk!

PauseAI, the volunteer organization I’m part of: https://pauseai.info

Join the PauseAI Discord — https://discord.gg/2XXWXvErfA — and say hi to me in the #doom-debates-podcast channel!

Doom Debates’ Mission is to raise mainstream awareness of imminent extinction from AGI and build the social infrastructure for high-quality debate.

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This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit lironshapira.substack.com

Devin Shelton (Ep 53)