Bloomberg Surveillance September US Payroll Gain Beats Most EstimatesSeptember US Payroll Gain Beats Most Estimates
Nov 20, 2025
Jeffrey Cleveland, Chief Economist at Payden & Rygel, analyzes the September jobs report, discussing wage growth and the implications for Fed policy amid rising unemployment risks. David Malpass, former President of the World Bank, addresses income inequality and proposes policy reforms to boost growth. Marta Norton, Chief Investment Strategist at Empower, shares insights on AI-driven market trends and the importance of fixed income. Together, they provide a deep dive into economic dynamics and investment strategies.
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Labor Market Softening Without Recession
- The September jobs report shows modest payroll growth and steady wage gains, keeping consumer spending power intact.
- Jeffrey Cleveland sees unemployment rising toward 4.5–4.6% but says the data don't signal an imminent recession.
Tariffs Seen As One-Time Inflation Shock
- Cleveland expects core PCE to move toward 2% next year, excluding one-off tariff effects.
- He judges tariffs as a one-time price-level shock rather than an enduring inflation driver.
Use Small Cuts To Shift Market Expectations
- Try a modest rate cut to influence broader borrowing costs through market expectations.
- Cleveland argues even a 25bp cut can lower 10-year yields and mortgage and corporate borrowing costs if the bond market reprices lower rates.