Mark Gurman and Anurag Rana discuss Apple's outlook, Gina Adams explains stock market's health, Priya Anand debunks San Francisco decline, Joel Weber shares details of Keith Naughton's story on EVs, and Ryan Detrick predicts market performance.
The strong consumer outlook, supported by factors such as a rebound in housing and manufacturing, suggests that the odds of a recession are low.
While the S&P 500 has not made a new high in two years, historical data shows that after extended periods without new highs, the market tends to reach new records, bringing solid returns in the following year.
Deep dives
Strong consumer and low recession odds support bullish outlook
Despite the mixed trading and potential slowdown in the first quarter, the overall market outlook remains bullish. The strong consumer outlook, supported by factors such as a rebound in housing and manufacturing, suggests that the odds of a recession are low. While there may be a well-deserved break and a possible downtrend in the first quarter, history shows that after periods of consolidation, the market tends to experience solid gains. It is important to consider the long-term perspective and not get overly concerned by short-term fluctuations.
Waiting for new highs and S&P's resilience
While the S&P 500 has not made a new high in two years, this is not an uncommon occurrence. Historical data shows that after extended periods without new highs, the market tends to reach new records, bringing solid returns in the following year. Although the S&P 500 may have a slower start in the first quarter of an election year, the prospects for continued growth remain positive, especially considering the expected strong performance after consolidations and the absence of major warning signs.
Cautionary signs to monitor
While the overall outlook is bullish, there are a few cautionary signs that should be monitored. These include the performance of credit spreads and any potential policy mistakes by the Federal Reserve. Relatively stable credit spreads and a steady approach by the Fed could help sustain the positive market momentum. However, an unexpected sharp increase in credit spreads or a hawkish change in the Fed's stance could create headwinds for the market.
Bloomberg News Chief Technology Correspondent Mark Gurman and Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Technology Analyst Anurag Rana discuss Apple's outlook following recent analyst’s downgrades. Bloomberg Intelligence Chief Equity Strategist Gina Martin Adams explains why the stock market's health is likely stronger than it first appears. Bloomberg News Tech and VC Reporter Priya Anand says San Francisco’s demise has been greatly exaggerated. Bloomberg Businessweek Editor Joel Weber and Bloomberg News Auto Reporter Keith Naughton share the details of Keith's Businessweek Magazine story Why There Won’t Be an EV in Every Garage This Year. And we Drive to the Close with Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at the Carson Group. Hosts: Carol Massar and Tim Stenovec. Producer: Paul Brennan.