FT News Briefing Swamp Notes: Why the polls aren’t budging
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Nov 2, 2024 Joining the discussion are Lauren Fedor, Deputy Washington Bureau Chief at the Financial Times, and Oliver Roeder, Senior Data Journalist specializing in election analysis. They dive into why polls are static as the election nears. The conversation highlights unique voter motivations, particularly Trump and Harris's strategies to energize their base. They also touch on the potential of prediction markets and the complexities of swing voters in this polarized political climate. Insights into anxiety management around elections offer a refreshing perspective.
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Close Race
- The 2024 US Presidential election polls are historically close, nationally and in swing states.
- These polls have remained static, creating a coin-toss scenario.
Poll Fluctuations
- Despite the static nature of the polls, people still analyze minor fluctuations.
- These small changes don't necessarily reflect significant shifts in voter preference.
Static Polls
- Kamala Harris closed the gap between Trump and Biden when she joined the race.
- The race has remained static due to high polarization and voters aligning with their chosen 'teams'.