Glenn Diesen - Greater Eurasia Podcast Stanislav Krapivnik: Odessa Is a Key Goal in Ukraine War Endgame
Jan 16, 2026
Stanislav Krapivnik, a former U.S. Army officer turned military-political expert, analyzes the endgame of the Ukraine War from a unique perspective. He discusses the critical importance of Odessa and current frontline dynamics in southern Ukraine. Krapivnik details the logistical challenges that could impede Ukraine's efforts and shares insights on troop quality and casualty rates. He also warns of the risks associated with nuclear escalation and geopolitical distractions affecting U.S. policy, asserting that negotiations seem increasingly unlikely.
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Zaporizhzhia Is Exposed To Drone Warfare
- Russian forces are advancing through open terrain and suburbia toward Zaporizhzhia, making the city extremely vulnerable to drones and aviation.
- Stanislav Krapivnik says defenders will suffer heavy casualties and cannot hold the flat, exposed city for long.
Flanking and Attrition Over Frontal Assaults
- Russia is rolling up fortified Ukrainian lines by flanking where forces are thin and then clearing pockets of resistance.
- Krapivnik describes Ukrainian counterattacks as PR-motivated suicide charges that fail in open ground.
Nikolaev Is The Gateway To Odesa
- Capturing the Dnipro riverbank and then Nikolaev is key to reaching Odesa, because Nikolaev poses a decisive flank threat.
- Krapivnik outlines a southern axis: Dnipro-Petrovsk → Nikolaev → Odesa after crossing Kherson.