Capital Allocators – Inside the Institutional Investment Industry Marko Papic – Geopolitical Shock in a Multi-Polar World (Capital Allocators, EP.237)
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Feb 28, 2022 Marko Papic, Chief Strategist at Clocktower Group, dives into the geopolitical upheavals shaping global markets. He discusses the fallout from Russian actions in Ukraine and how it's triggering a reassessment of risk among investors. Papic emphasizes the need to adapt investment strategies in a multipolar world, focusing on the rise of commodities amid increasing geopolitical instability. He also sheds light on China's challenges and the evolving dynamics of US and European alliances in response to the crisis.
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Multipolar World
- The current geopolitical environment is multipolar, unlike the Cold War's bipolarity.
- Multiple nations pursue independent interests, creating volatility and frequent conflicts.
Potential Outcomes
- One potential outcome is Putin declaring a quick victory, achieving some goals, and a return to a tense status quo.
- However, Putin's miscalculations could lead to escalation, severe sanctions, and inflationary impacts similar to the 1973 Yom Kippur War.
Putin's Constraints
- Putin's constraints include Ukraine's large size, decent military capacity, and demographics.
- Occupying Ukraine is difficult due to low pro-Russian sentiment, even among Russian speakers.