Developer Productivity Will Decline in 2025 | Predictions from LinearB’s Ori Keren
Dec 10, 2024
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Ori Keren, CEO of LinearB and a pioneer in developer productivity, shares bold predictions for the future of engineering teams. He warns that as AI tools proliferate, 2025 may see a drop in developer productivity and creativity before benefits are realized. Keren discusses the importance of measurement for optimization, the clash between developer experience and productivity, and the rising need for cybersecurity. His advice for engineering leaders? Embrace data-driven, people-first strategies to navigate the upcoming changes.
The rise of AI tools is anticipated to initially decrease developer productivity and creativity, necessitating a reevaluation of leadership strategies in 2025.
Effective measurement of both quantitative and qualitative productivity metrics is essential for enhancing developer experience and reducing burnout among engineering teams.
Deep dives
The Role of AI in Software Engineering
AI is expected to play a significant role in shaping software engineering practices by 2025. As technologies related to AI mature, developers, especially junior ones, are likely to incorporate AI tools into their daily workflows, enhancing their productivity and effectiveness. There is a strong prediction that AI agents will eventually be able to manage tasks autonomously, like processing Jira tickets or creating pull requests. However, while the potential is promising, many organizations are still in the early stages of experimentation and are grappling with the integration of these technology advancements.
Challenges of Developer Experience
Developer experience (DevX) appears to be at a crucial juncture as companies seek to improve both qualitative and quantitative measures of productivity. Effective measurement is vital, yet many organizations still rely on outdated methods that do not accurately capture the intricacies of a developer's workflow. To address these measurement gaps, there's a growing emphasis on combining quantitative data, like build times, with qualitative insights derived from real-time feedback on challenges after task completion. The drive to enhance DevX creates opportunities for innovative platforms aimed at identifying and rectifying systemic pain points while making the development process smoother.
Addressing Software Engineer Burnout
Maintaining a balance between developer productivity and personal well-being is becoming increasingly critical, especially as many engineers experience burnout amid changing work dynamics. The complexities of managing workloads and addressing the often-cumbersome nature of development processes contribute significantly to this issue. Leaders must recognize that while committed developers aim to complete their tasks, prolonged inefficiencies in the development pipeline can lead to compensatory work hours, resulting in a vicious cycle of frustration and fatigue. Acknowledging the human elements of teamwork and ensuring that engineers have access to the right tools and support may help mitigate burnout risks.
The Future of Engineering Leadership
Engineering leaders have a challenging and multifaceted role that requires them to balance technical knowledge with business acumen effectively. As they prepare for the next year, leaders must embrace a data-driven approach, measuring the right metrics to assess productivity and inform decision-making. Communication between technical teams and business stakeholders remains critical; leaders must translate engineering complexities into language that resonates with business professionals. By cultivating a shared vision and defining a clear strategy for both technical evolution and employee satisfaction, engineering leaders can guide their teams toward greater innovation and success in the years ahead.
2025 will test every assumption about how engineering teams work.
With the new year fast approaching Ori Keren, CEO of LinearB, has some bold predictions that might surprise you, like why developer productivity could actually go down in 2025.
Yep, you read that right.
As AI tools flood the market, we might see a dip in both productivity and creativity before the long-term benefits kick in. It’s a wake-up call for engineering leaders to rethink how they lead their teams.
Ori dives into the trends that’ll dominate: - AI’s rise - The ever-growing need for cybersecurity - Why DevEx and developer productivity are heading for a showdown
His advice? Stop flying blind. “You can’t optimize what you don’t measure,” he says.
If you’re leading an engineering org, this episode is your 2025 game plan: a mix of data-driven decision-making and people-first strategies to stay ahead in a year of change. Don’t miss this insightful fusion of qual and quant.