Guests Lori Calvasina, Mark McCormick, and Sonal Desai discuss swings in tech stocks, movements in the Japanese Yen, Fed decision preview, and outlook on the bond market. Topics include growth concerns, inflation perspective, FX market dynamics, rate cuts expectations, and challenges in buying Treasuries.
Stock reactions indicate investor anxiety over growth rate deceleration in tech giants.
Japanese authorities may need to tighten policy to address historic movements in the yen.
Deep dives
Stock reactions to earnings data revealing growth deceleration
The podcast delves into how stock reactions indicate a deceleration in growth rates. Forecasts based on bottom-up consensus suggest a drop from 35% in 2023 to around 15% in 2025 for the basket of top companies. Despite solid growth, investors seem wary when powerful momentum stocks experience a decline in growth rates, leading to tense stock price reactions.
Market response to earnings performance and industry trends
The episode highlights how companies facing potential earnings growth deceleration are received in the market. The focus is on how stock price reactions vary for businesses mentioning long-term benefits like AI advancements versus those prioritizing short-term gains. The podcast emphasizes a shift in market patience levels and expectations, particularly regarding growth rates for leading tech companies.
Factors influencing currency interventions and market movements
Discussions in the podcast explore the yen's recent movements and potential intervention by Japanese authorities. The conversation delves into the contrasting perspectives of the Ministry of Finance and the Bank of Japan regarding currency strength. Insight is provided on how FX interventions can influence diverse outcomes for sectors like tourism, exporters, and consumers, highlighting the intricate dynamics of currency valuations and policy implications.
-Lori Calvasina, Head of US Equity Strategy, RBC Capital Markets -Mark McCormick, Global Head of FX Strategy, TD Securities -Sonal Desai, Fixed Income CIO, Franklin Templeton
Lori Calvasina of RBC Capital Markets reacts to big swings in mega-cap tech stock prices, saying "growth investors get angsty." Mark McCormick of TD Securities discusses the historic moves in the Japanese Yen, saying the BOJ will be forced to tighten policy more than what's currently priced-in. Sonal Desai of Franklin Templeton previews Wednesday's Fed decision and shares her outlook on the bond market, saying the long end of the yield curve will move higher over time.