Michael Allen, Managing Director at Beacon Global Strategies, interviews Michael Morel and Andy McCreitas as they discuss their predictions for national security and intelligence in 2024. They cover potential risks in 2024, Israeli-Hamas conflict, speculation on a coordinated attack involving Iran, US policy towards Iran, and growing tensions between China and the United States.
2024 is anticipated to have significant geopolitical and national security risks, comparable to the al-Qaeda threat in 2002.
The future of Ukraine depends on sustained Western support to counter Russia's maximalist goals.
Deep dives
2024 Brings Significant Geopolitical and National Security Risk
The year 2024 is expected to bring significant geopolitical and national security risks. Experts believe that the level of risk in 2024 is comparable to that faced in 2002 during the al-Qaeda threat. The prospect of a Russian invasion of Ukraine has heightened tensions, but experts anticipate that 2024 will have even higher levels of risk. Territorial disputes, such as those in the South China Sea and the Korean Peninsula, also contribute to the overall geopolitical risk.
The Importance of Western Support for Ukraine in the Face of Russian Aggression
The future of Western support for Ukraine will determine the future of Ukraine itself. If sustained and expanded, Western support can help Ukraine eventually drive out Russia and regain control of its territory. However, if support erodes or ends abruptly, Russia will likely achieve its maximalist goals, annexing Ukraine or reducing it to a vassal state. The outcome of the war in Ukraine relies heavily on the level of Western support and the continued attention and will to sustain it.
Assessing the Conflict in Gaza and Its Implications
In the conflict between Israel and Hamas in Gaza, Israel is making slow advances while facing significant challenges. The conflict has caused devastating impacts on both sides, but Hamas is gaining support in terms of public opinion and sympathy. The situation is complex, and progress in Gaza is dependent on establishing a transitional government and addressing the issue of corruption in the Palestinian Authority. The aftermath of the conflict and the future of Gaza remain uncertain, with potential risks of further attacks by terrorist groups and potential shifts in regional dynamics.
Growing Tensions Between China and the United States
Tensions between China and the United States are expected to escalate in 2024. Both countries are likely to engage in military exercises and follow aggressive rhetoric. The presidential election in Taiwan will likely cause further friction, and the broader issue of territorial disputes and Chinese influence will continue to be sources of tension. As the international order erodes, there is a possibility of military conflicts in different regions, further straining the relationship between China and the United States.
In this special episode, Beacon Global Strategies Managing Director Michael Allen turns the microphones on Michael and Andy and interviews them about their forecasts for national security and intelligence in 2024.
Get the Snipd podcast app
Unlock the knowledge in podcasts with the podcast player of the future.
AI-powered podcast player
Listen to all your favourite podcasts with AI-powered features
Discover highlights
Listen to the best highlights from the podcasts you love and dive into the full episode
Save any moment
Hear something you like? Tap your headphones to save it with AI-generated key takeaways
Share & Export
Send highlights to Twitter, WhatsApp or export them to Notion, Readwise & more
AI-powered podcast player
Listen to all your favourite podcasts with AI-powered features
Discover highlights
Listen to the best highlights from the podcasts you love and dive into the full episode