Is Russia targeting underwater infrastructure? Plus analysis of "milbloggers"
Sep 28, 2023
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The podcast discusses the ban on Russian athletes at the Asian Games and threats to undersea cables. Updates on the Ukraine-Russia conflict and UK support, vulnerability and importance of undersea cables, fallout from Progosian's death, freedom of access to the internet and recruitment to armed forces, and integration of irregular formations and Russia's mobilization capability.
Mill bloggers in Russia have become more self-censoring and refraining from criticizing the Russian government, making it harder to gather information and analysis.
Maps alone are limited in analyzing the battlefield and must be complemented with textual analysis to provide a comprehensive understanding of the situation.
Russia is integrating irregular formations, like private military companies, into its contract service but faces challenges in terms of training, bureaucracy, and equipment shortages.
Deep dives
Changes in the Mill Blogger Landscape
The mill blogger landscape in Russia has undergone changes in recent times. Following the death of Progosian and his mutiny, many mill bloggers have become more self-censoring, refraining from criticizing the Russian Ministry of Defense or the Kremlin. Some have shifted their focus to highlighting the actions of Ukrainian forces instead. This shift has made it more challenging to gather information and analysis from mill bloggers as they are less outspoken and less critical of the Russian government. However, new trends and factions continue to emerge within the mill blogger community, keeping the information space dynamic and ever-evolving.
The Importance of Context in Analyzing Maps
While maps are a valuable tool for analyzing the battlefield, they have limitations. Without proper context and the understanding of the dynamics and circumstances surrounding the information presented on the map, it can be misleading. Maps alone cannot convey crucial information such as the density of defense positions, the number of troops, or the significance of certain tactical or operational objectives. Textual analysis, along with maps, is necessary to provide a comprehensive understanding of the situation.
Russian Force Generation and Mobilization
Russia has been integrating irregular formations, such as private military companies (PMCs), into its contract service under the Russian Ministry of Defense. This integration campaign aims to bring these irregular forces under formal control and regulation. While Russia claims to have a vast reserve of over 25 million people, the actual training and combat readiness of these reserves is limited. Mobilization and conscription efforts have faced challenges in terms of training, bureaucracy, and equipment shortages. Russian officials continue to work on improving their reserve system and contract service capabilities.
Mill Bloggers and the Information Space
Mill bloggers play a crucial role in shaping the information space in Russia. While some have become more cautious in their reporting and self-censoring, new trends and factions are emerging. The Kremlin has attempted to co-opt some mill bloggers, integrate them into committees, or influence their content through advertising. However, mill bloggers remain a valuable source of insight into the Russian military, political dynamics, and societal sentiments. Despite challenges, the information space remains dynamic, with different groups promoting their perspectives and agendas.
The Challenges and Potential of Russian Mobilization
While Russia claims the potential to mobilize significant numbers of troops, the actual capacity and effectiveness of mobilization efforts are limited. The training and readiness of reservists are often lacking, and the bureaucratic and equipment challenges hamper their deployment and effectiveness. Mobilization during wartime also poses political and societal challenges for Russia's leadership, especially considering previous negative public reactions. Ongoing efforts are being made to improve conscription and mobilization processes, but significant reforms and improvements are still necessary for a more effective mobilization capability.
Today, we discuss how the IOC has banned Russian athletes from the Asian Games, and look at the latest threats to undersea cables.
Plus, we hear from Kateryna Stepanenko, Russia Deputy Team Lead at the Institute for the Study of War, about the significance of 'milbloggers' during this conflict.
Contributors:
Dominic Nicholls (Host, Associate Editor, Defence). @DomNicholls on Twitter.
Gareth Corfield (Senior Tech Reporter). @GazTheJourno on Twitter.
Kateryna Stepanenko (Russia Deputy Team Lead, ISW). @KatStepanenko on Twitter.