The podcast discusses the recent bond-market sell-off, with losses resembling those of stock market crashes. It explores the impact of higher interest rates on stakeholders, including investors, consumers, businesses, and pension funds. The chapter also delves into the consequences of rising rates on fixed income allocations and leveraged buyouts. Financial engineering strategies and their implications on private equity-backed companies are explored. The effect of rising rates on the cost of equity capital and Jerome Powell's speech on inflation control and economic well-being are also discussed.
The recent increase in the 10-year US Treasury yield has resulted in significant losses for bond investors, making it the greatest bond bear market of all time.
Higher bond yields have implications for consumers and businesses, impacting affordability, real estate prices, and the ability to service debt.
Deep dives
Impact of Rising Bond Yields on Investors
The recent increase in the 10-year US Treasury yield to its highest level since 2007 has resulted in significant losses for bond investors. Analysts are calling this the greatest bond bear market of all time, with long-term Treasury ETFs experiencing an 8.5% decline over the last month. This loss is devastating for risk-averse bond investors seeking stable returns and income, and it exceeds the losses experienced during the 1981 bond market downturn. The increase in bond yields has been driven by inflation expectations and concerns over government spending plans, impacting various sectors and raising anxiety among investors.
Effects of Higher Interest Rates on Consumer and Businesses
Higher interest rates have implications for the consumer and businesses. Mortgage rates, credit card interest rates, and car loan rates have all reached historic highs, impacting affordability and adding additional expenses for borrowers. This, in turn, affects real estate prices and contributes to a decline in existing home sales. Financial firms like banks and insurance companies historically benefit from higher interest rates, but the impact is diminished due to the low yield bonds purchased during the pandemic. Corporate debt markets and private equity firms also face challenges due to rising interest rates, leading to questions about the ability to service debt and impacting deal-making.
Sectors Affected by Rising Bond Yields
Rising bond yields have different effects on various sectors. Defensive sectors like financials, healthcare, and consumer staples tend to perform better in a rising rate environment due to their steady earnings. Conversely, real estate and consumer discretionary sectors suffer as borrowing costs increase and non-essential goods and services become less attractive. Growth stocks are more sensitive to changes in long-term interest rates, while value stocks may face higher costs of capital as their bonds roll over and the cost of equity capital increases for all firms. The Federal Reserve faces the challenge of balancing inflation control with avoiding unnecessary harm to the economy.
Send us a textThe 10-year U.S. Treasury yield closed above 4.9% yesterday, its highest level since July 2007. The bond-market sell-off that's pushing yields higher is starting to eclipse some of the most extreme market meltdowns of past eras.Losses on Ten Year Treasury Bonds are close to 50% since March 2020, while the 30-year bond had plunged even more.Those losses are nearly in line with stock-market losses seen during the worst crashes of recent stock market history — when equities slumped...
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