Global FX: On Japan intervention/ GPIF, dollar supports and European data
Jul 12, 2024
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Global FX experts discuss Japan intervention impact on yen, CPI & payrolls on dollar, and European data implications on EUR, GBP, and Scandi FX. Analysis includes GPIF asset changes, US economic indicators, European data influence, and global currency trends.
GPIF's asset allocation affects yen flows, US data moderates dollar's strength.
European inflation prints pose challenges for Scandi currencies, BOE's policy impacts sterling.
Deep dives
Impact of GPIF on Yen and Japan's Economy
The podcast delves into the impact of GPIF, Japan's pension fund, on the yen and the country's economy. It discusses how GPIF's shifts in asset allocation influence capital outflows from Japan and potential repatriation flows. By increasing investments in foreign bonds, Japan faces challenges in achieving expected returns due to the low-interest rate environment. The analysis suggests that changes in GPIF's basic portfolio could lead to substantial yen buying, affecting currency dynamics.
US Data Moderation and Dollar Strength
The episode highlights the moderation in US data and its impact on the dollar's strength. Discussions focus on the softening US economic indicators, including payrolls and CPI prints, influencing the dollar's performance. Despite expectations of declining US yields, the dollar remains relatively strong due to wide yield spreads. The podcast also considers the implications of US elections and their potential effect on tariffs and trade conflicts.
European Currencies Trends and Market Reactions
The podcast explores trends in European currencies, including recent data from the UK, Norway, and Sweden. It analyzes the market reactions to inflation prints in Norway and Sweden, indicating potential positioning challenges. The discussion covers the impact of Scandi Central Banks' easing policies on domestic growth and currency dynamics. Additionally, insights are provided on the UK's economic performance and the Bank of England's policy stance, affecting the sterling's valuation and exchange rates.
This week, our Global FX Strategists discuss the outlook for yen flows with focus on GPIF, the dollar’s reaction to CPI & payrolls, and the implications of the latest data for EUR, GBP and Scandi FX.