Bloomberg Surveillance Single Best Idea: Lori Calvasina & Jim Caron
9 snips
Sep 29, 2025 This discussion delves into the latest equity market updates, highlighting Lori Calvasina's innovative earnings model. GDP and CPI emerge as crucial factors shaping revenue forecasts. Tom Keene and Lori explore the Atlanta Fed's optimistic Q3 GDP estimate and its encouraging implications for corporate investments. Meanwhile, Jim Caron reveals the strategic appeal of combining bank loans with high-quality bonds in fixed income portfolios—offering listeners a robust investment insight.
AI Snips
Chapters
Transcript
Episode notes
Revenue Modeling Uses GDP And CPI
- Lori Calvacina emphasizes modeling revenues using macro drivers like real GDP and CPI to separate price and unit effects.
- Raising assumptions for GDP or CPI materially boosts revenue forecasts in her quant-driven model.
Unexpectedly Strong Q3 GDP
- Atlanta Fed GDP showing 3.6% for Q3 surprised with strength rather than slowdown, implying a buoyant earnings start to the season.
- Strong GDP can reflect capex and AI investment, supporting corporate toplines even if broader narratives expect slowing.
Use Bank Loans In A Barbell Strategy
- Jim Caron recommends considering bank loans as floating-rate, shorter-reset credit that can benefit as rates decline.
- Combine bank loans with short-term, high-quality government bonds to create a barbell and manage risk.