Kerre Woodham: National snatching defeat from the jaws of victory would be one hell of an achievement

49 percent of New Zealanders believe the country is on the wrong track. 42 percent believe it's going in the right direction. 77 percent of people feel poorly or not so good about the economy. 22 percent think it's good or excellent, and this is one of the largest gaps since the pandemic.

And yet, National is only slightly ahead of Labour in the latest polls from Talbot Mills, they also run Labour's private political polling. In the results, Te Pāti Māori would hold the balance of power when it came to forming a government.

Get ready for another three years of a Labour/Greens government people. That is the joy of living in a democracy.

How is it that when even Labour knows they're stuffing things up and getting things wrong, (hence the change of leader, hence the policy reset), there is still the potential for them to get another three years.

I know at Newstalk ZB and this particular show, we're in our own little echo chamber here, but it can't be that Labour are doing things right. Even they know they're not doing things right. The poll says people are dissatisfied and worried about the economy, but voters don't feel that National is the overwhelming answer.

Matthew Hooton, writing in the NZ Herald this morning, says National’s' nonchalance stems first from it not understanding just how badly Hipkins, Sepuloni, Robertson, Woods and Wood, want to win a third term. They don't appreciate their hunger, their desperate desire to see things through to get the policies they care about pushed through.

Matthew Hooton says too, that National doesn't understand David Seymour's ACT party more than the Nats' only credible coalition partner. It seems likely that Christopher Luxon can't get National above 40 percent.

I've spent time with Christopher Luxon. He's got all the figures; he's got an impressive grasp of detail. He's perfectly personable, but he's just not getting any cut through.

I don't know what more he can do. He can't be somebody else. Somebody else could be the leader of the National Party, but I don't think that would work right now, especially after Labour has replaced its leader. It would look desperate and it would be desperate.

I think Hooton is right, though. The best opportunity to gain traction on Labour would be for National to form a working alliance with ACT. Christopher Luxon and David Seymour need to show voters what a central right New Zealand would look like. We don't want any more empty rhetoric.

We've had five years of sloganeering and empty rhetoric; we want good meaty policy.

We want to see what New Zealand looks like with a centre-right influence and then we can decide.

Winston Peters was right, that the only poll that matters is the one on voting day, but for National to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory would be one hell of an achievement, and certainly not one to be proud of.

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