Greg Karlstrom, The Economist's Middle East correspondent, discusses the complexities of Israel's ground operation in Lebanon and the potential for escalation. He examines the challenges faced by both sides and the influence of U.S. support. Noah Snyder, the East Asia bureau chief, shares insights on Japan's new prime minister, Ishiba Shigeru, and the internal struggles within his party. They also humorously critique the inefficacies of the dreaded work sandwich lunch, providing a light-hearted twist amid serious discussions.
Israel's invasion of Lebanon targets Hezbollah's military infrastructure, raising concerns over a potential escalation into a broader conflict.
The U.S. finds itself in a precarious position, supporting Israel's actions while calling for a ceasefire amidst rising regional tensions.
Deep dives
Israel's Ground Operation in Lebanon
Israel has officially launched a ground operation in Lebanon aimed at dismantling Hezbollah's military infrastructure, including bunkers and tunnels developed over decades. This decision comes amid concerns from local residents who have been displaced by ongoing rocket fire and seek improved safety conditions. While Israeli officials describe the offensive as limited and localized, there are fears that it could escalate into a broader conflict if an exit strategy is not established. The situation is further complicated by ongoing airstrikes in Lebanon and Syria, which target Hezbollah and Iranian military assets, highlighting the potential for a wider regional confrontation.
Hezbollah's Response and Military Preparedness
Hezbollah's reaction to Israel's ground invasion has been somewhat restrained, with continued rocket fire towards northern Israel but not escalating to feared levels of retaliation. The group faces significant challenges in command and control due to recent Israeli actions, including assassinations of its commanders and disruption of its communication networks. As the Israeli military engages in challenging terrain, Hezbollah is likely preparing its defenses, potentially giving it an advantage in an asymmetric conflict. Observers note that despite the limited scale of Israel's invasion, the risk of it spiraling out of control into a larger war looms over both Lebanon and Israel.
U.S. Response and Impact on Middle Eastern Politics
The U.S. administration has found itself in a contradictory position, advocating for a ceasefire while simultaneously supporting Israel's ground operation in Lebanon. Initially, there were efforts to mediate a ceasefire amidst rising tensions, but recent developments, including the assassination of key military figures, have shifted the conversation towards military support for Israel's actions. This evolving stance has drawn criticism, suggesting a decline in the U.S. influence and credibility in the Middle East as it appears to be acting under the influence of its ally. Analysts argue that the lack of a cohesive American exit strategy could exacerbate the situation and deepen regional instability.
As Israeli troops move into Lebanon and missiles strike Damascus in Syria, can Israel’s next offensive really stay “limited, localised and targeted”? Japan’s new prime minister loves planes, trains and ramen, but with few allies within his own party, his premiership may attract less devotion (8:57). And the worst invention in modern office life: “the sandwich lunch” (15:24).