Ronald Stöferle: Gold has Entered the Public Participation Phase

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May 28, 2025

Ronald Stöferle, a researcher and fund manager at Incrementum, discusses gold's evolving role as a critical asset, particularly in emerging markets like Saudi Arabia and China. He highlights that gold is now in a 'public participation phase' of its bull market cycle, driven by increasing acceptance in investment portfolios. Stöferle also differentiates between 'safe haven gold' and 'performance gold,' indicating the rising interest from institutional investors. He confidently predicts gold could reach $4,800 per ounce by the decade's end amid growing skepticism of traditional finance.

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INSIGHT

Emerging Markets Drive Gold Demand

The key driver of gold demand now is emerging markets, both from central banks and private buyers.
Western investors often underestimate gold's cultural and economic importance in Asia and the Middle East.

INSIGHT

Gold’s Bull Market Phase

Gold is currently in the "public participation phase" of its bull market, gaining broader acceptance and media attention.
Early contrarian investors are not yet selling heavily; the bull market still has momentum.

INSIGHT

Western Investors’ Gold Sentiment

Western retail investors are still cautious about gold at its current price, showing limited bullishness.
The wider gold bull market still has substantial buying potential ahead from the West.

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Ronnie Stöferle, researcher and fund manager at Incrementum and author of the In Gold We Trust report, emphasizes that gold remains a critical asset as its role evolves alongside shifting global dynamics. Over nearly two decades, Stöferle has observed significant changes in how gold is perceived and demanded, particularly driven by emerging markets like Saudi Arabia, India, China, and Turkey. These regions now account for the majority of physical gold demand, both from central banks and private investors, underscoring a growing recognition of gold’s value as a safe haven and store of wealth.

Stöferle highlights that while gold is often seen as low volatility, it is currently in the “public participation phase” of its bull market cycle. This phase is characterized by increased media attention, higher price forecasts, and broader acceptance into investment portfolios. Despite gold’s recent rise to around $3,300 per ounce, Stoferle maintains a bullish outlook, projecting a long-term target of $4,800 by the end of the decade. He attributes this confidence to underappreciated demand from emerging markets and growing skepticism toward traditional financial systems.

The discussion also delves into the distinction between “safe haven gold” (physical gold stored securely) and “performance gold” (silver mining stocks and commodities). Stöferle suggests that while physical gold serves as a defensive hedge, performance gold offers higher potential returns. However, he cautions investors to actively time their exposure to these assets due to their volatility.

Additionally, Stöferle addresses the role of Bitcoin alongside gold, viewing it as a complementary asset within a broader portfolio diversification strategy. He notes that while Bitcoin faces skepticism from traditional financial institutions, its adoption is steadily gaining traction, particularly among younger investors.

Timestamp References:
0:00 – Introduction
0:50 – Gold and Global Change
2:55 – Golds Performance
7:20 – Demand West Vs. East
12:48 – C.B. Gold Demand
15:57 – Int. Rates & Bond Mkts.
18:55 – Trump & Weaker Dollar
23:45 – New Gold Theory
27:54 – ETF Flows & Public Demand
30:48 – Silver’s Potential?
34:34 – Miner’s & Fundamentals
37:53 – Metals & Bitcoin’s Role?
44:27 – Tether & Treasuries
45:57 – Wrap Up & Final Thoughts

Guest Links:
In Gold we Trust 2025 – Full version:
https://ingoldwetrust.report/download/46285/?lang=en
In Gold we Trust 2025 – Compact version:
https://ingoldwetrust.report/download/46286/?lang=en
Video with all highlights of the report:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vM4_NDZL9mA&t=2s

Slidedeck Key Takeaways of IGWT25:
https://ingoldwetrust.report/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/Presentation-Press-Conference-In-Gold-We-Trust-report-2025-english.pdf

Link to Incrementum’s Monthly Gold Compass:
https://ingoldwetrust.report/monthly-gold-compass/?lang=en

Subscription Link:
https://ingoldwetrust.report/subscribe/?lang=en

Twitter:
https://x.com/@IGWTreport
https://x.com/@RonStoeferle

Webpage IGWT-report: https://ingoldwetrust.report/?lang=en
Webpage Incrementum: https://www.incrementum.li/en/

Ronnald Stöferle is fund manager and managing partner of Incrementum AG. He studied Business Administration and Finance in the USA and at the Vienna University of Economics and Business Administration, and also gained work experience at the trading desk of a bank during his studies. Upon graduation he joined the Research department of Erste Group, where he published his first “In Gold We Trust” report in 2007. Over the years, the Gold Report has proceeded to become one of the benchmark publications on gold, money, and inflation. Since 2013 he has held the position as reader at scholarium in Vienna, and he also speaks at Wiener Börse Akademie. In 2014, he co-authored the book “Austrian School for Investors” and in 2019 “Die Nullzinsfalle” (The Zero Interest Rate Trap). He is also a member of the board of Tudor Gold, a Canadian exploration company with projects in the legendary Golden Triangle, British Columbia, and an advisor to VON GREYERZ, a global leader in asset preservation in the form of physical gold stored outside the banking system. Ronnie is married and proud father of three daughters. He likes to spend his spare time with his family, watching and playing football, running, and at classical concerts.