Consider This from NPR Round one of Brazil's presidential election points to a shift to the right
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Oct 5, 2026 
Kerry Kahn, an NPR journalist specializing in Latin American politics, and Brian Winter, Americas Quarterly’s editor in chief, examine Brazil’s presidential runoff. They discuss Flávio Bolsonaro’s lead over Lula, voter frustration despite economic growth, and Brazil’s importance to U.S. strategy. The conversation also explores China, trade, crime, Amazon deforestation, and Brazil’s global influence.
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Why Brazil Is Trump’s Biggest Regional Prize
- Brazil is Washington’s biggest Latin American prize because its size, resources, and strategic location amplify regional influence.
- Brian Winter says 13 of the region’s last 16 elections went right or center-right, making Brazil pivotal to that trend.
Trump’s Brazil Strategy Has Backfired
- Trump’s Brazil strategy combines ideology with immigration, drugs, security, and competition for rare-earth access.
- His tariffs backfired by hurting the U.S. economy while strengthening Lula and damaging the Bolsonaro family’s political position.
Why Good Economic Numbers Feel Bad
- Brazil’s economy is growing and unemployment is historically low, yet voters feel poorer because wages buy less.
- Lula’s promise that Brazilians could eat picanha again became a memorable symbol of unmet affordability expectations.