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Post Reports

How to make sense of political polls

Oct 3, 2024
Emily Guskin, The Post’s deputy polling director, breaks down the world of political polling as Election Day nears. She explains how polls are conducted and emphasizes the significance of their methodology, including random sampling and question crafting. Emily tackles public skepticism about polling accuracy, especially post-2016, and discusses improvements made by pollsters to better capture voter demographics. With insightful analogies, she clarifies why polls reflect momentary public sentiment rather than future predictions.
27:33

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Quick takeaways

  • Polling captures a snapshot of public opinion through randomized sampling, allowing understanding of current sentiments rather than future predictions.
  • The margin of error is essential for interpreting poll results, indicating the range within which true public attitudes may lie.

Deep dives

Understanding Polling Methodology

Polling provides insights into public opinion by systematically reaching a randomized sample of a target population. It allows pollsters to gather data on how groups, such as Nevada or North Carolina voters, feel about critical issues at a specific moment in time. The randomness of sampling means that even if an individual does not receive a call to participate, the collected data represents a broader sentiment. Polls pose questions that gauge immediate preferences, rather than predicting future outcomes, making it essential for consumers to interpret results with the understanding that public sentiment can shift quickly.

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