The impact of Donald Trump’s re-election on US relations with China and East Asia
Nov 14, 2024
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Jim McGregor, a Greater China expert and former Dow Jones head, joins Rupert Wingfield-Hayes, BBC's Asia correspondent in Taiwan, and Steve Tsang, Director of the SOAS China Institute, to discuss the potential impact of Donald Trump's re-election on US-China relations. They explore the risks of new trade tariffs and how Trump's unpredictability might empower China in the South China Sea and towards Taiwan. The conversation also highlights Taiwan's defense spending amid external pressures and the intricate dynamics influencing North Korea's relationship with China.
Trump's re-election presents both opportunities and challenges for China, with his transactional nature encouraging negotiations but also triggering aggressive trade policies that alarm Beijing.
Taiwan is optimistic about continued U.S. military support under Trump, yet remains cautious about his unpredictability and potential conflicts with China affecting their defense strategies.
Deep dives
Trump's Unpredictability and Its Impact on China
Beijing views Donald Trump's re-election with mixed feelings, as his approach is seen as both an opportunity and a challenge. Some academics in China believe Trump’s transactional nature could enable more direct negotiations, while others express concern over his erratic behavior and his aggressive trade policies, such as proposed tariffs on Chinese imports. These tariffs particularly worry the Chinese government as they strive to stabilize their economy and rely heavily on exports. Additionally, discussions among Chinese citizens suggest a divide in sentiments, where some support Trump based on perceptions of U.S. political figures, indicating a general lack of informed voter engagement.
The Taiwanese government feels relatively optimistic following Trump’s re-election, pointing to significant arms deals achieved during his first term, which strengthened its defense capabilities. Taiwan maintains that bipartisan support for its security in the U.S. Congress has grown, making it hopeful for continued military backing under the Trump administration. However, there is underlying concern about the unpredictability of Trump’s decisions, particularly regarding a potential conflict with China. The Taiwanese defense strategy is currently focused on increasing military spending and adapting their defense approach to counter the military threats posed by China.
The Broader Regional Implications for U.S.-China Relations
The implications of Trump’s re-election extend beyond U.S.-China relations, impacting the geopolitical landscape across East Asia. Regional allies like Japan and South Korea are increasingly wary of China’s assertive actions and are recalibrating their defense strategies as tensions escalate. The South China Sea remains a flashpoint, with the U.S. committed to maintaining freedom of navigation, though there is caution about escalating military involvement. Furthermore, Trump's isolationist tendencies could complicate multilateral alliances, even as nations seek to counterbalance China's growing influence in the region.
What will Donald Trump’s re-election mean for relations between China and the US? Is Beijing alarmed by his threats of massive new trade tariffs, and the unpredictability that he likes to boast about? Or will it see his relative lack of interest in global affairs — and his love of a deal — as a chance to increase its leverage and put more pressure on Taiwan, while boosting its influence in the South China Sea? Presenter Duncan Hewitt discusses these issues with Jim McGregor, Chairman for Greater China at APCO Worldwide, Professor Steve Tsang, Director of the SOAS China Institute, and BBC Asia correspondent Rupert Wingfield-Hayes.
This podcast was recorded on 13 November 2024, shortly before it was confirmed that Donald Trump had nominated Marco Rubio as Secretary of State.