The Morgan Housel Podcast Trying Too Hard
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Sep 18, 2023 The discussion explores the pitfalls of trying too hard, illustrating how excessive effort can backfire in investments. It emphasizes the evolution of once-rejected ideas into today's successes, showcasing the necessity of adaptability. A humorous take on the complexities of expertise reveals that simpler solutions often work better than overcomplicated narratives. Additionally, the podcast delves into the tension between expert advice and personal ethics, particularly in medicine, highlighting the challenges in balancing knowledge with empathy.
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Trying Too Hard in Investing
- In investing, too much effort can be counterproductive, like an upside-down U curve.
- Excessive intelligence and complexity can lead to "Harvard stupid" mistakes, as Bill Mann called them.
McRae's Simple Diagnosis
- Dr. Thomas McRae's simple diagnosis was correct, while his professor overthought it, looking for a rare disease.
- This shows how focusing on common occurrences is often better than searching for rarities.
The Downside of Expertise
- Trying too hard can yield worse results than putting in less effort.
- Experts can make catastrophic errors that novices avoid due to lack of information.