Making Sense with Sam Harris #191 — Early Thoughts on a Pandemic
Mar 11, 2020
Amesh Adalja, an infectious disease specialist from Johns Hopkins University, shares critical insights on the coronavirus pandemic. He discusses the virus's contagiousness and severity, helping to separate myth from reality regarding transmission. The conversation covers the importance of social distancing, the timeline for vaccine development, and the role of antiviral treatments. Adalja emphasizes pandemic preparedness and the need for reliable information to navigate health crises effectively, all while reflecting on the societal reactions to this unprecedented challenge.
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Case Fatality Rate Estimate
- Dr. Adalja's best estimate of COVID-19's case fatality rate is 0.6%, based on South Korean data.
- He believes this is an upper bound due to testing bias and expects it to be higher than the seasonal flu (0.1%).
Severe Case in Healthy Individual
- While most COVID-19 cases are mild, it has a higher fatality rate than the flu.
- Sam Harris knows a healthy 50-year-old skier on a ventilator due to COVID-19, which is unusual for the flu.
Mildness in Children
- Children experience milder COVID-19 symptoms, potentially due to less robust immune responses.
- Another hypothesis suggests cross-immunity from exposure to other coronaviruses that cause common colds.