The Dutch Investors #78 | Is PayPal the Ultimate Value Play or Value Trap? w/ Type-F Capital
Jan 28, 2026
Amir (Emir) of Type-F Capital, a data-driven equity researcher known for deep Excel-led company dives, tackles whether PayPal is misunderstood. He discusses why the stock crashed, KPIs to watch for a turnaround, buyback and take‑private optionality, PayPal’s data vault moat, Venmo monetization, competition and ads upside. Short, analytical and contrarian.
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Market Prices Implausible Long-Term Decline
- The market prices PayPal as if revenue will shrink ~6% annually for the next decade, which Amir finds implausible.
- He runs reverse DCFs and sees current prices imply an unrealistic structural decline given PayPal's scale and cash generation.
Buybacks Limit Downside
- PayPal can materially repurchase shares with existing cash flows, potentially retiring the float by 2031 under Amir's scenario.
- Buybacks create a strong downside buffer and make continued declines self-correcting through accelerated repurchases.
Not New Competition — A Race To The Bottom
- Competition from Stripe, Apple Pay, Adyen has existed for years and drove take rates down; PayPal's response is to exit that race to the bottom.
- Management targets higher-value, value-added services to raise take rates instead of purely competing on price.