Beware The Digital Ides of March

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March 15 stands in infamy as the day that Julius Caesar was stabbed to death at a meeting of the Roman Senate. The conspirators, led by Brutus and Cassius, were ratted out by a seer, who ominously warned Caesar that harm would come to him that day, advice that Caesar pointedly ignored because:

1. he was arrogant, popular and successful—precisely why the Senators chose to off him, and
2. the seer was not unhelpful in clarifying exactly when the harm would come, where in Rome, and what form the harm might take.

With hindsight, ‘Beware the Ides’ was sound advice from the seer, who apparently derived his insights by consulting the entrails of recently deceased animals.

I too have ‘gut instincts’, but generally I’m more data driven and not in the business of conducting colonoscopies of goats and sheep for clues about the future.

The Ides did not disappoint this year, as it turns out. The big event of the week was the failure of the Silicon Valley Bank, who stands accused of ignoring an iron-clad law of financing—they were inadequately hedged against rising interest rates, and lost a bundle when forced to sell a bond investment at a huge loss.