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The podcast episode highlights the similarities between the 1920s and the present day. Both periods experienced a pandemic followed by social unrest and protests, as well as speculative surges in the markets. The question now is whether we will see a true 'roaring 20s' or a slower recovery. One parallel is the presence of speculation in largely unregulated asset classes, such as equities in the 1920s and crypto today.
The podcast discusses how different factors and sectors perform during inflationary times. Research shows that momentum tends to be the best-performing factor during inflationary regimes, while size is the worst-performing. Among sectors, energy performs the best, while consumer staples perform the worst. These findings provide insights into potential investment strategies during inflationary periods.
The episode explores the historical evolution of competitive advantages in markets. It highlights the cyclical pattern of access, speed, and analysis as sources of competitive edge. Initially, having access to unique market information provided an advantage. Then, speed became crucial, enabling investors to act before others. Currently, analysis of widely available information is the key differentiator. Technological advancements, such as carrier pigeons and later technologies, have played a significant role in this evolution.
The podcast discusses the need for regulation in the cryptocurrency market, particularly in relation to the quality and legitimacy of different cryptocurrencies. The speaker emphasizes that while Bitcoin is seen as a legitimate investment by Bitcoin maximalists, many other cryptocurrencies are considered sketchy or fraudulent. The lack of regulation allows for the proliferation of these dubious cryptocurrencies, which can ultimately impact the price and reputation of Bitcoin and more mainstream cryptocurrencies. The podcast suggests that increased regulation, similar to what was implemented after the 1929 stock market crash, could help improve the quality of companies in the crypto market and protect individual investors.
The podcast examines the impact of regulation on IPOs in the stock market. It highlights the Securities Act of 1933, which was put into place after the 1929 stock market crash. Before the Act, IPOs on non-New York stock exchanges had a negative average five-year return of 52%. However, after the Act, the average return improved to a positive 5.7%. The regulation aimed to discourage fraud and increase the overall quality of companies going public. The podcast suggests that similar regulation in the crypto market could help improve investor returns and ensure a higher level of company quality.
Trey brings back financial historian, Jamie Catherwood. Jamie is a Client Portfolio Specialist at O'Shaughnessy Asset Management and the author of the popular blog, Investor Amnesia.
Trey and Jamie discuss the historical viewpoint on a post-bubble world, the impact of 1800s markets on our current market outlook, and more.
IN THIS EPISODE YOU’LL LEARN:
00:00 - Intro
01:45 - How markets from the 1800’s can inform how we view our market today.
13:27 - How the frauds of today like FTX draw similarities to frauds of the past.
31:00 - How the crypto market resembles the early days of the stock market.
40:32 - Why market regulations developed in the US.
54:10 - Where the term “bankruptcy” comes from.
55: 30 - Other fascinating facts and stories from the past.
Disclaimer: Slight discrepancies in the timestamps may occur due to podcast platform differences.
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