Maggie Lake Talking Markets Episode 89: The Oil Bull Case. With Josh Young.
Sep 29, 2025
Josh Young, Chief Investment Officer of Bison Interests and a contrarian value investor, dives deep into the bullish case for oil despite skepticism. He discusses the impact of geopolitical tensions and underinvestment in the energy sector. Young highlights demand drivers like China's reopening and the rise of AI, predicting oil could reach $80–$85 as a near-term fair value. He also shares insights on small-cap oil equities and the complexities of OPEC's market dynamics, offering a compelling perspective on a potentially turbulent market landscape.
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Structural Underinvestment In Oil
- Josh Young argues long-term underinvestment in exploration sets up a multi-year oil shortage risk.
- He sees shale productivity peaking while new demand drivers could surprise to the upside.
OPEC Still Holds Spare Capacity
- OPEC controls most spare global capacity, so their actions heavily influence short-term balances.
- Josh thinks the marginal cost of new supply is far higher than current prices, implying big upside if shortages appear.
Skepticism Over Claimed OPEC Reserves
- Josh doubts OPEC can deliver all claimed capacity and questions static reserve figures from some members.
- He notes exploration has been minimal, so claimed reserves likely overstate real capacity.