Rebel Capitalist News New Consumer Data Tanks (What You Need To Know)
Jun 18, 2025
Recent consumer data shows a worrying decline in retail sales, influenced by auto sales and labor market conditions. The discussion dives into how GDP measurements can be misleading and the role of government spending in shaping economic indicators. Oil prices are under scrutiny, with a key resistance level being tested amid geopolitical tensions. Additionally, the podcast reveals innovative ways for gold owners to earn interest on their holdings without incurring storage fees, blending individual and commercial interests for mutual benefit.
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Retail Sales Drop Sharply
- Retail sales dropped sharply by 0.9% in May, worse than expectations and not adjusted for inflation.
- Much of the decline is due to pulled-forward demand in auto sales ahead of tariff increases.
Demand Pulled Forward Affects Inventories
- Consumers pulled demand forward for autos due to tariffs, likely affecting other inventory categories.
- This suggests businesses also front-loaded inventories, which could hurt future GDP as inventories shrink.
Restaurant Sales Predict Recession
- Restaurant sales are a strong recession indicator because consumers cut dining out first.
- This metric predicted recessions with a 95% hit rate in back testing using AI.