Swamp Notes Is the US economy really K-shaped?
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Nov 28, 2025 
Claire Jones, U.S. economics editor at the Financial Times, and Rob Armstrong, a U.S. financial commentator at the same outlet, dive into the K-shaped economy phenomenon. They explore how wealth disparity has widened post-pandemic and what drives this perception. Key topics include consumer spending trends revealed through corporate earnings, market shifts affecting lower earners, and the political stakes tied to affordability. They also discuss what the White House might do to address these economic challenges and whether the U.S. has achieved a soft landing.
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K-Shape Explained
- A K-shaped economy means the rich pull further ahead while the poor fall behind, widening inequality.
- Claire Jones links recent K-shape talk to wealth gains (housing) and weaker prospects for low earners.
Wealth, Housing And Bottom-Half Risks
- Housing and asset gains have boosted wealth for top earners while lower earners face worsening prospects.
- Claire warns policy changes could raise premiums and remove Medicaid, hurting the bottom half.
Companies See Split Consumers
- Robert Armstrong cites company reports showing split consumer behavior among income groups.
- He highlights Walmart's CEO saying higher-income families now drive their growth while lower-income families face pressure.