What Trump Has Got Wrong—and Right—About the War in Ukraine
Mar 7, 2025
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Stephen Kotkin, a historian specializing in Russia and a fellow at Stanford's Hoover Institution, discusses Donald Trump's controversial stance on the Ukraine conflict. He highlights Trump’s admiration for Putin and critiques of Zelensky, raising concerns about U.S. foreign policy implications. Kotkin examines the changing landscape of American power and the limitations it faces, stressing that while Trump's views may be flawed, they reflect underlying realities in global politics. The conversation navigates the shifting geopolitical dynamics and the impact on U.S. commitments.
Trump's admiration for Putin undermines Ukraine's leadership, reflecting a perilous shift in U.S. foreign policy dynamics and international support.
The disconnect between European military commitments and Ukraine's defense needs highlights the challenges facing U.S. strategic presence in a changing geopolitical landscape.
Deep dives
Trump's Affinity for Putin and Its Implications
Donald Trump's evident admiration for Vladimir Putin raises concerns about the moral and strategic direction of U.S. foreign policy. This inclination has manifested in a pattern of diminishing support for Ukraine's democratically elected leaders, notably Volodymyr Zelensky, as Trump and political allies have openly criticized him. Recently, Trump's administration announced a pause in military aid and intelligence sharing with Ukraine, a decision that undermines Ukraine’s capacity to defend itself against ongoing Russian aggression. The Kremlin interprets this shift as validation of its narrative that Ukraine provoked the invasion, further complicating the geopolitical landscape.
European Leadership and America's Strategic Dilemmas
In light of ongoing conflicts, Zelensky seeks increased support from European leaders, who recently convened at a defense summit. Despite their historical backing, there are concerns about Europe’s effectiveness in providing the military assistance that Ukraine needs to counter Russian forces. The discussion highlights a troubling trend: while Zelensky's government seeks security guarantees, European countries have been unable to commit to sending troops, revealing a gap between aspirations and reality. This disconnect emphasizes the necessity for a recalibrated American presence and strategy in Europe amid shifting alliances.
The Paradox of U.S. Power and Global Stability
American power has traditionally been characterized as robust and multifaceted; however, current discourse reveals concerns that commitments may exceed capabilities. Historical insights suggest that the U.S. remains the most powerful country, but the decline of allies like European nations could hinder its ability to project power effectively. The current strategic doctrine has been downgraded significantly, signaling a realistic reassessment of U.S. military commitments globally. This situation elicits critical discussions about how America can navigate its alliances while managing adversaries like China and Russia, especially in light of Trump's unconventional approach to foreign relations.
The Russian Public's Perspective and the Future of the War
Public sentiment in Russia appears increasingly restless regarding ongoing military engagements, with a significant portion of the population feeling disillusioned by the war in Ukraine. Despite Putin's resolve to maintain his aggressive stance, there are indications that Russian society may not support prolonged conflict, especially after suffering substantial losses. Observers note that for Russia to succeed, they need either a swift victory in Ukraine or external pressure to force concessions, neither of which seems feasible under current conditions. The path to a resolution may require strategic investments in rebuilding and political pressure to encourage a domestic shift in support for Putin’s regime.
Since emerging on the national political scene a decade ago, Donald Trump has openly admired the dictatorial style of Vladimir Putin. Trump’s lean toward Russia was investigated, it was psychoanalyzed—yet many were still shocked when recently Trump and Vice-President J. D. Vance berated President Volodymyr Zelensky, of Ukraine, in the Oval Office, and seemed to be taking Putin’s side in the conflict. When Russia invaded Ukraine three years ago, one of David Remnick’s first calls was to Stephen Kotkin, a historian of Russia and a fellow at the Hoover Institution. He speaks with Kotkin again, as Trump is pressuring Ukraine to accept a “deal.” Kotkin doesn’t endorse Trump’s position, but notes that it reflects real changes in America’s place in the world and the limits of American power. “You can say that Trump is wrong in his analysis of the world, you can say that Trump’s methods are abominable,” Kotkin says. “But you can’t say that American power is sufficient to meet its current commitments on the trajectory that we’re on.”
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