Marc Chandler, Managing Partner at Bannockburn Global Forex and editor of the Marc to Market website, sheds light on recent market dynamics. He dives into silver's remarkable surge above $57, analyzing whether it's due to a short squeeze or fundamental shifts. The conversation explores the anticipated Federal Reserve rate cuts, the weakening US Dollar, and a potential Bank of Japan hike. Additionally, he discusses the resilience of the S&P 500 amidst liquidity concerns and highlights the contrasting trends in the Australian Dollar and the Rare Earths sector.
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insights INSIGHT
Fed Cut Odds Drive Rates And Dollar
Market sentiment has shifted sharply toward pricing an ~80% chance of a Fed rate cut next month.
That shift is pushing U.S. 10-year yields below 4% and weakening the dollar.
insights INSIGHT
Global Rate Swings Influence FX Flows
The BOJ outlook swung from no-hike to >50% chance of a December rate hike on stronger data and a weak yen.
Narrowing U.S.-German two-year spreads also support a stronger euro next year.
insights INSIGHT
Expect Peak U.S. Rates And Multiple Cuts
Chandler believes U.S. rates have likely peaked and expects two to three cuts by end of next year.
The key near-term datapoint will be the Fed's December Summary of Economic Projections.
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In this Daily Editorial, we are joined by Marc Chandler, Managing Partner at Bannockburn Global Forex and Editor of the Marc to Market website.
Marc breaks down the massive moves in the precious metals market to end the month, with Silver surging over 7% to break $57/oz and significantly outperforming Gold. We discuss the macro drivers behind this rally, primarily the shift in market sentiment which is now pricing in an ~80% chance of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December. Marc provides his analysis on the weakening US Dollar, the tightening spreads between US and German debt, and the potential for a Bank of Japan rate hike next month.
Key Discussion Points:
Silver's Historic Breakout: Analyzing the $5+ move in Silver futures to over $57/oz. Is this the legendary "short squeeze" driven by dislocations in China, or a fundamental repricing?
The Fed Pivot: US 10-Year yields are falling as the market aggressively prices in rate cuts for December and into 2026.
Currency Markets: The US Dollar softens while the Yen strengthens on expectations of a BOJ hike. Marc also highlights the Australian Dollar as a standout.
Equity Resilience: Despite valuation concerns, the S&P 500 continues to grind higher, fueled by liquidity and rate cut hopes.
Sector Watch: A look at the Rare Earths sector, which remains in a downtrend despite the broader commodity boom.
Investment Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, an offer, or a solicitation to buy or sell any security. Investing in equities and commodities involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Do your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Guests and hosts may own shares in companies mentioned.
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