Thoughtful Money with Adam Taggart Bonds Looking Bullish In The Near-Term | Michael Lebowitz
Sep 25, 2025
Portfolio manager Michael Lebowitz shares his insights on bonds, highlighting his bullish outlook due to inflation dynamics and tariffs. He discusses how shelter data might lag, impacting CPI measurements. Michael explains the restrictive nature of current Fed policy and anticipates a flight to Treasuries during a recession. He also advises on actively managing bond positions and contrasts current speculative behaviors with historical patterns. Lastly, he offers his perspective on gold as an insurance asset and ways to hedge against downturns.
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Tariffs Are Mostly A One-Time Shock
- Tariffs produced a one-time price shock that mostly hit corporate margins, not sustained consumer inflation.
- As companies cut spending and hiring, that second-order effect is disinflationary over time.
Family Example Of Margin Pressure
- Michael describes his daughter's marketing firm laying off staff as margins get squeezed by tariffs.
- He uses this firsthand example to show how corporate cost‑cutting reduces economic activity and is disinflationary.
Shelter Lag Masks True Inflation Trend
- Shelter components in CPI and PCE lag reality and currently overstate inflation.
- When shelter measures catch up, headline inflation could fall meaningfully toward the Fed's 2% goal.