ThePrint ThePrintPod: Vijay’s TVK could corner 23% vote share if it goes solo in TN polls, finds DMK’s confidential survey
Oct 15, 2025
A recent survey suggests Vijay's TVK could capture 23% of the vote if it runs solo in the Tamil Nadu polls. The DMK-commissioned study, covering 2.91 lakh respondents, shows strong support despite past setbacks. There’s a fascinating analysis of potential alliances, highlighting various scenarios including one with NDA. Strategists believe TVK may become a significant challenger to DMK in future elections, even as parties like AIADMK criticize the survey's validity. The stakes are high as the 2026 polls loom ahead.
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TVK Retains Strong Voter Traction
- A DMK-commissioned confidential survey shows Vijay's TVK retains strong traction despite the Karur stampede.
- The survey estimates TVK could get 23% vote share if it contests alone, posing a long-term challenge to DMK.
Large Sample Yields Alliance Scenarios
- The survey covered 2.91 lakh respondents with an average of 1,245 per constituency, giving it wide sample coverage.
- It modelled alliance scenarios showing DMK at 50% with NDA+TVK, but DMK dropping to 45% if TVK goes solo.
Alliance Limits Mirror Political Realities
- Scenario modelling suggests an NDA (BJP+AIADMK+TVK) would still trail DMK at 50% vs 35%.
- But internal AIADMK friction and Tamil Nadu resistance to BJP ideology could limit such an alliance's effectiveness.