Marketplace All-in-One When the job market is a "complicated, unusual, difficult situation"
Dec 11, 2025
Nancy Marshall Genzer, a Marketplace reporter specializing in economic topics, discusses how the Federal Reserve views the labor market as weaker than it appears, highlighting potential overestimation in job growth. Diane Swank, Chief Economist at KPMG, weighs in on the impact of tariffs—debating whether their effects are just a temporary spike in prices or indicative of long-term inflation trends. The conversation also explores the ripple effects of tariffs beyond their initial targets, showcasing a deeply interconnected economy.
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Job Growth May Be Overstated
- The Fed thinks the Bureau of Labor Statistics may be overcounting job growth by about 60,000 a month.
- That could mean real job creation is negative while the unemployment rate stays steady because labor supply fell.
Real-Time Job Estimates Are Unreliable
- Jerome Powell warned it's very difficult to estimate job growth in real time because surveys don't count everyone and there may be systematic overcounts.
- The BLS plans modeling changes that could improve accuracy starting February.
Unemployment Rate Can Mislead Workers
- Powell noted job creation may actually be negative while unemployment hasn't moved much due to a smaller labor supply.
- That mismatch could give workers a false sense of job security.