Analyzing the dynamics within the Democratic Party, this podcast explores the shift from left populist candidates to Joe Biden in the presidential primaries. It discusses party unity, declining support among young voters, and generational divides on issues like the Israel-Hamas conflict. Journalist Joshua Green delves into the rise of left populism, the Republican Party's evolving stance on spending, and the challenges faced by progressive candidates. The influence of Donald Trump as a unifying force among Democrats is also examined.
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Quick takeaways
The Democratic Party has experienced divisions between the progressive left and establishment, highlighted by differences on cultural and foreign policy issues.
Left populist candidates have made significant policy impacts within the Democratic Party, but face challenges of electability and perception of radicalism.
Deep dives
The Rise of Left Populism in the Democratic Party
The podcast episode explores the rise of left populism within the Democratic Party, highlighting the influence and appeal of progressive left figures such as Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders, and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. It discusses how the 2008 financial crisis served as a turning point, giving rise to a new brand of left populism that prioritized active government intervention in the economy. The episode also notes that Joe Biden, despite not being seen as a left populist, has embraced many left populist themes and policies in his presidency. It emphasizes that while there is unity within the party on economic matters, divisions have emerged on cultural and foreign policy issues, such as the recent conflict between Israel and Hamas. The episode raises questions about the future of the left populist movement and its electoral success within the Democratic Party.
The Success and Challenges of Left Populism
The episode examines the level of success achieved by the left populist movement within the Democratic Party. It notes that while candidates like Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren haven't won the presidency, their influence can still be seen in Joe Biden's adoption of many left populist policies. However, it acknowledges that the left populist candidates faced challenges in terms of electability, particularly due to the perception of their policies as too radical. The episode highlights the importance of attracting a broader range of voters, including normy independents, and discusses the possible marriage between the establishment and the progressive left in Biden's presidency. It also explores how cultural and foreign policy issues, such as the Israel-Hamas conflict, can create divisions within the coalition.
The Impact of Economic Policies
The episode delves into the impact of economic policies advocated by the left populist movement. It notes that policies such as stimulus checks, enhanced unemployment benefits, and industrial revitalization have been instituted in response to crises like the 2020 COVID crash. It discusses the positive economic effects of these policies, such as declining unemployment rates and revitalization of struggling communities. However, the episode also acknowledges the challenges of measuring the success of these policies in terms of electoral sway and public perception. It raises questions about whether consensus on economic policies can be reached outside of crises and whether voters perceive the positive economic trends as a result of these policies.
The Future of Left Populism and the Democratic Party
The episode explores the prospects of left populism within the Democratic Party in the future. It speculates that a successful left populist candidate would not necessarily be explicitly associated with the progressive left, but rather someone who comes from the broad center of the party and is willing to adopt populist policies. The episode suggests that future Democratic candidates may be more focused on addressing the needs of ordinary middle-class Americans, particularly in areas like jobs, housing, education, and inflation. It also considers the dividing lines within the Democratic Party, including foreign policy and the role of Donald Trump as a unifying or divisive force. The episode acknowledges the potential challenges the party may face if Trump is not the Republican nominee in the next election.
In early 2020, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez told New York Magazine that, “In any other country [she and President Joe Biden] would not be in the same party.” Yet, by April of that year, after Bernie Sanders dropped out, she “absolutely” threw her support behind Biden, saying “the stakes are too high when it comes to another four years of [former President Donald] Trump.”
Since Trump’s victory in 2016, opposition to the former president has served as one of the strongest organizing principles for the Democratic Party. And that dynamic has likely helped paper over some of the “progressive left vs. establishment” divides that were visible in the 2016 and 2020 primaries.
While the 2024 Democratic primary is essentially uncompetitive, some cracks in that unity have still emerged. For example, since Biden took office, one of his steepest declines in support has been among young voters, a cohort that backed Sanders in 2016 and 2020. Differing views of the current war between Israel and Hamas have further highlighted the generational divide in the party.
In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, Galen speaks with author Joshua Green about those divides, where they come from and how they may manifest in 2024. Green’s new book is titled, “The Rebels: Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, and the Struggle for a New American Politics.”