
Front Burner Will Trump's tariffs survive the Supreme Court?
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Dec 4, 2025 Eric Miller, President of Rideau Potomac Strategy Group and an expert in international trade, dives into the Supreme Court's looming decision on Trump’s tariffs. He explores the legal complexities surrounding the use of a 1970s national security law for tariffs, highlighting the skepticism from conservative justices. Miller discusses the economic fallout in Canada, including impacts on industries like lumber and aluminum, and outlines how businesses absorb tariff costs. He also analyzes Canada’s negotiation strategy and the broader implications for trade policies.
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Constitutional Clash Over Tariff Authority
- The Supreme Court must decide if the president overstepped by using the 1977 International Emergency Powers Act to impose tariffs.
- That raises a constitutional clash because Article I grants Congress authority over taxes and tariffs.
Conservative Skepticism Despite Court's Makeup
- Conservative justices showed skepticism about blanket global tariffs tied to an emergency declaration.
- Their legal philosophies may limit automatic alignment with everything President Trump supports.
Prepare For Partial Legal Outcomes
- Expect only some tariffs to be invalidated if the court strikes down IEPA-based measures; Section 232 tariffs likely remain.
- Watch for the administration shifting to other trade laws to preserve tariff policy.
