The Jacob Shapiro Podcast

Perceived Concessions

Feb 21, 2025

Matt Gertken, Chief Geopolitical Strategist at BCA Research and former Stratfor analyst, discusses a pivotal shift in U.S. foreign policy towards Europe amidst the Russia-Ukraine conflict. He debates the potential implications of Turkey's role in the Black Sea and examines whether Russia might set its sights on invading the Baltics. Gertken also analyzes the political complexities in Germany and delves into the delicate tensions between Iran, Israel, and the U.S., all while highlighting China's influence in the Middle East.

01:00:41

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Episode guests

Matt Gertken

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Quick takeaways

The U.S. is experiencing a significant shift in foreign policy toward Europe, impacting alliances and defense strategies amid the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

Turkey's complex balancing act regarding its relationship with Ukraine and Russia highlights its selective approach to regional power dynamics.

Iran's nuclear ambitions pose a growing threat to Western nations, potentially provoking Israel to take preemptive military actions in the Middle East.

Deep dives

US-Europe Relations and the Russia-Ukraine War

Recent developments in US-Europe relations and the Russia-Ukraine conflict signal a significant shift in foreign policy dynamics. Events such as notable speeches at international conferences and direct negotiations involving political figures are indicative of this change. Analysts suggest that the current moment is pivotal, potentially defining the geopolitical landscape of 2025 and beyond. This evolving situation reflects a broader trend of great power politics resurfacing, reminiscent of significant historical inflection points.

Intro

4min

Trump's Foreign Policy: Concessions and Consequences

27min

Geopolitical Strategies and Oil: The Houthi Dilemma

2min

Navigating Germany's Political Landscape

18min

Iran's Nuclear Ambitions and Geopolitical Tensions

5min

Geopolitical Dynamics and Global Stability

5min

Rob is off this week! Instead, Jacob is rejoined by former colleague and current chief geopolitical strategist at BCA Research Matt Gertken. They recap the week in geopolitics – specifically, the seachange in U.S. foreign policy toward Europe, the potential role of Turkey, and the future of the Black Sea. They close with thoughts on China and the Middle East.

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(01:30) – Gravity of the moment

(12:30) – Will Russia invade the Baltics?

(19:10) – Turkey & the Black Sea

(33:00) – Germany

(40:25) – China

(50:38) – Iran and the Middle East

Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

CI Site: cognitive.investments

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The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.

Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

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The Jacob Shapiro Podcast

Perceived Concessions

Episode guests

Podcast summary created with Snipd AI

Quick takeaways

Deep dives

US-Europe Relations and the Russia-Ukraine War

Trump's Foreign Policy Strategy

The Role of Europe in Defense and Security

Turkey's Position in Geopolitical Dynamics

Iran's Nuclear Program and Regional Stability

Remember Everything You Learn from Podcasts