EM strategists Jonny Goulden & Saad Siddiqui discuss the impact of US elections on EM markets, comparing EMEA and Latin America performance, debt restructuring insights, and complex bond negotiations in Sri Lanka.
EM markets show mixed performance due to US election worries and local developments in regions like LATAM.
Global data supports fixed income markets internationally, with EM currencies like BRL and MXN recovering.
Deep dives
Market Performance and Influencing Factors
Over the last month, while US markets have shown a bullish trend with positive growth data, Emerging Markets have experienced a mixed performance due to concerns related to the US election and specific developments in countries like LATAM. Despite some positives in the likely Fed path, EM has faced sell-offs, especially in FX, with notable recoveries seen recently in currencies like BRL and MXN. There has been a slight cheapening in EM local versus US rates, while credit markets have remained relatively stable.
Global Economic Trends and Impact on EM Fixed Income
Internationally, the trajectory appears supportive for fixed income markets with benign inflation prints and rate cuts in various G10 economies, indicating a positive environment. Emerging Markets, particularly Latin America, have shown significant underperformance recently, but recent inflation prints in EM suggest a favorable outlook for EM local. Despite some dollar strength, the overall market conditions appear supportive, although the looming US election poses a significant event risk.
Idiosyncratic Developments in Emerging Markets
EM has witnessed contrasting idiosyncratic stories in different regions, with EMEA-EM markets like Turkey and South Africa showing signs of improvement after past vulnerabilities. Conversely, Latin American markets such as Mexico and Brazil, traditionally strong performers, faced political shocks leading to weaknesses. While South Africa and Turkey seem to be benefiting from positive inflows and potential improvements, Mexico and Brazil are navigating challenges related to fiscal policies and market reactions.