How to Win NFL DFS Tournaments in 2024 (Episode 768 with Adam Levitan, Mike Leone, Drew Dinkmeyer)
Sep 4, 2024
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Adam Levitan is a DFS expert, while Mike Leone specializes in sports data analysis, and Drew Dinkmeyer brings strategic insights from the DFS community. They dive into strategies for winning NFL DFS tournaments, focusing on game selection and stacking techniques. Discover the benefits of using simulations, the differences between large and small field tournaments, and when to pivot with player ownership. Plus, they discuss pairing quarterbacks and running backs for better lineups. A must-listen for DFS enthusiasts looking to up their game!
Game selection significantly influences success in NFL DFS, emphasizing smaller field tournaments for better expected outcomes and financial efficiency.
Effective player stacking, particularly through pairing quarterbacks with pass catchers, is crucial and requires understanding the dynamics of the offensive unit.
Utilizing simulations for optimizing lineups allows players to assess projected returns and devise strategies tailored to specific contest structures.
Deep dives
Game Selection Strategies
Game selection is crucial for maximizing success in NFL DFS tournaments. Choosing smaller field size tournaments, such as single entry and three-max contests, can significantly enhance a player’s expected outcome. Awareness of tournament rates, payout structures, and the potential for overlay on certain sites can also lead to better financial efficiency. The discussion emphasizes that game selection isn't solely about finding contests with the highest prize pools but rather about the specific dynamics and player pools of different contests.
Player Stacking Techniques
Effective player stacking is essential for succeeding in NFL DFS. Selecting appropriate stacks, which involve pairing a quarterback with pass catchers, can vary based on the size of the contest being played. In smaller competitions, participants may consider double and even triple stacks to harness higher correlation among players. Understanding the operational dynamics of the offensive team being stacked, especially regarding how potential scoring will be distributed among players, is imperative for making informed stacking decisions.
Utilizing Simulations for Lineup Building
Using simulations is a powerful approach for optimizing DFS lineups. By running thousands of simulated iterations for each slate, participants can evaluate projected returns on investment (ROI) while incorporating factors like ownership projections. The ability to adjust player projections within the simulation tool enables users to customize outcomes and identify optimal strategies that fit their contest needs. This dynamic allows DFS players to test various lineup constructions to determine which combinations yield the best results.
Ownership Considerations
Evaluating player ownership is a key strategy for distinguishing winning lineups from the competition. In large-field tournaments, players often need to leverage lower-owned players alongside chalky selections to navigate a path to top positions in the standings. Whether a player is just popular or projected to outperform their ownership can drastically affect lineup construction. Balancing high-owned, well-performing players with strategic fades of popular choices allows for a blend that can enhance the chances of standing out.
Adjusting for Contest Sizes and Structures
Contest size and structure have significant impacts on strategy and decision-making in DFS. Smaller contests, for instance, allow for increased correlation and multiple onslaughts of an offensive unit, while larger contests necessitate a more balanced approach relying on diverse high-performing talent. Late swap opportunities in smaller fields provide the flexibility to react to changing circumstances, enhancing strategic play. Tailoring strategies to the respective contests allows players to effectively adjust ownership strategies and player selections for maximum effectiveness.
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Episode Summary
Adam Levitan, Drew Dinkmeyer, and Mike Leone discuss the right strategies to beat NFL DFS tournaments this season.
Show Notes
In this episode, we discuss:
Game selection
Stacking
Using Sims
Large vs. Small field
Tons more
Timestamps:
2:34 - Week-to-Week DFS Game Selection 14:00 - The Player Selection Process 19:26 - Is Stacking Still A Smart Strategy? 29:58 - Ownership in Large Field Tournaments 36:57 - Strategy Adjustments for Smaller Field Tournaments 45:47 - How to Use Sims
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