Milk Road Macro Is the Fed Losing Control? Why a Leadership Change Could Reshape Markets w/ Barry Knapp
Nov 13, 2025
Barry Knapp, a macro veteran and founder of Ironsides Macroeconomics, discusses the potential end of the Powell era at the Federal Reserve. He highlights the Fed's misreading of inflation and labor market signals, which could lead to serious policy errors. With a possible leadership change in January, Barry speculates on how a new chair might reshape monetary policy. He also shares insights on the implications of ending quantitative tightening and offers strategic advice on portfolio positioning in today's market.
AI Snips
Chapters
Books
Transcript
Episode notes
Fed's Hawkish Balance Sheet Move
- The Fed's current stance is hawkish because it tightened duration on its balance sheet even after ending QT.
- Barry Knapp argues two 25bp cuts are needed to restore credit flow and stimulate housing via small banks.
Supreme Court To Curtail IEPA Use
- The Supreme Court will likely limit use of IEPA for tariffs but won't unwind deals or force rebates.
- Tariffs' macro price impact has mostly passed, though margins and some inflation pass-through remain risks.
Fed's Intellectual Blind Spot
- The Fed lacks supply-side and capital-markets perspectives and overweights demand-side New Keynesian thinking.
- This ideological homogeneity, Knapp says, causes them to misread inflation and under-appreciate fiscal drivers.
