Bitcoin for Millennials The 4-Year Cycle Is Wrong (Math Proves Bitcoin's Real Pattern) | Stephen Perrenod | BFM218
Dec 29, 2025
Stephen Perrenod, an astrophysicist and technology consultant with 30 years in computing, dives deep into the numerical nature of Bitcoin. He draws fascinating parallels between Bitcoin and alchemy, explaining how electricity and miners transform digital money. Perrenod debunks the four-year halving cycle myth, using mathematical analyses to show Bitcoin's power-law behavior. He also explores Bitcoin's correlations with gold and stocks, providing insights on optimal portfolio allocations. Expect predictions for Bitcoin's trajectory, revealing why its dynamics are akin to natural laws.
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Bitcoin Follows Power-Law Network Dynamics
- Bitcoin behaves like a scaling network and follows power-law dynamics rather than simple exponential growth.
- Power laws have no fixed doubling time and require log-log analysis to reveal long-term trends.
Newton, Alchemy, And Bitcoin Analogy
- Stephen Perrenod recounts Isaac Newton's role at the Royal Mint and his interest in alchemy.
- He uses Newton's alchemy to analogize electricity, miners, and Nakamoto consensus as Bitcoin's transformation factors.
Bitcoin Vs Gold Shows Strong Power-Law Fit
- Bitcoin measured in gold shows a strong power-law with a high R², confirming long-term scaling versus gold.
- Gold itself does not follow a power law in time and instead tracks inflation-like compound growth.