Novara Media Downstream: 2025: What Actually Happened? w/ Ash Sarkar and Aaron Bastani
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Dec 29, 2025 
Ash Sarkar is joined by Aaron Bastani, a political commentator and co-founder of Novara Media, for a deep dive into the tumultuous events of 2025. They discuss the complexities surrounding potential ceasefires in Ukraine and the implications of nuclear non-proliferation failures for global stability. The duo also tackles Britain's shifting political landscape regarding immigration and critiques Labour's recent budget. Additionally, they explore the rise of new left parties and make bold predictions for the political climate in 2026.
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Russia's Strategic Advantage In 2025
- Russia has engineered a favorable war outcome and currently benefits from a strengthened, battle-hardened military and economy.
- Aaron Bastani warns this has made ceasefire talks hard because Ukraine may be unrealistic about retaining pre-2022 borders.
Non‑Proliferation's Credibility Crisis
- The post-Cold War non-proliferation order has broken down, making nuclear deterrence less reliable.
- Bastani argues this failure may spur proliferation in Japan, South Korea and elsewhere over the next decades.
Deterrence Depends On Human Judgment
- Nuclear deterrence relies on faith in decision‑making under existential stress, which is fragile.
- Ash Sarkar links that fragility to renewed incentives for states to seek nuclear capability for security.
