Dwarkesh Podcast China is killing the US on energy. Does that mean they’ll win AGI? — Casey Handmer
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Aug 15, 2025 
In this engaging conversation, Casey Handmer, a Caltech PhD and former NASA JPL engineer, dives into the US-China energy rivalry and the implications for artificial intelligence. He argues that solar energy will be key in meeting the massive energy demands of AI. Handmer discusses the transformative potential of synthetic fuels, challenges in aligning land use for solar, and the financial realities of energy deployment. Appealing to contrarian views, he insists that understanding energy use will redefine AGI's value, challenging traditional economic metrics.
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Why The US Isn't Doomed To Lose
- The US still has strategic advantages beyond manufacturing scale, like geography, allies, and automation expertise.
- China’s industrial edge is significant but not an automatic win for AI dominance.
Why Hyperscalers Choose Gas First
- Hyperscalers pick natural gas because it delivers fast, local, high-capacity power and avoids long procurement lead times.
- That choice makes sense when speed matters more than long-term marginal cost.
Solar's Explosive Learning Curve
- Solar shows a historically steep learning rate (~43% cost drop per doubling).
- That high learning rate makes solar uniquely scalable and price-deflationary versus heavy industrial goods.